According to Neil Cybart at Above Avalon (the world’s top ranked Apple analyst), it took just over five years for the installed base of the Apple Watch to surpass 100 million people, and its growth trajectory continues to accelerate. What does this mean for the ‘traditional’ Swiss watch industry, and how should they react? A 14-year-old who wears an Apple watch today, will have worn nothing else until they’re old enough to afford a Rolex – The question is, when this day comes, will they want one?
A few days ago I was reading this post about how our preconceived notions might hinder our decision-making… I thought it was so applicable watches, and wanted to share it here with a few comments.
Yesterday, over lunch with the infamous @nycwatchguy and @f1ptb… … we discussed the concept of purchases under pressure. In the current environment this issue is far more pronounced, due to the rise of limited editions, the increased popularity of independent watchmaking (who have lower supply inherently) and because of general hype with any popular watches – often fuelled by the influx of profiteers into the watch game, who tend to pose as genuine enthusiasts or collectors. This also raised the question of what defines a “genuine” enthusiast anyway; and when is it ok to sell a watch without being labelled a flipper? Thoroughly enjoyed the conversation, and thought I would share a bit here.
The true purpose of this piece is to speak to all the people who are thinking about buying a De Bethune watch. If you didn’t like it a few months ago, the odds are you don’t actually like it now. Don’t get sucked into this hype train.
To summarise the concept; some people see the details in everything they do, like the fox, while others are great at having a singular vision, like the hedgehog. Going back to a critical distiction in the definition of the concept, Jim Collins says it perfectly: The Hedgehog Concept is not a goal to be the best, a strategy to be to be the best, an intention to be the best, a plan to be the best. It is an understanding of what you can be the best at. The distinction is absolutely crucial.
What about watchmaking then? Can you name any watchmaker(s) who come to mind when we think about Chutzpah? I’ll pick a few…