I recently watched a TED Talk entitled “The counterintuitive way to be more persuasive” – the talk was about the Dilution Effect. In this talk, organizational psychologist Niro Sivanathan discusses this cognitive quirk that weakens our strongest cases, and he reveals why brevity is the true expressway to persuasion.
I was reading this book by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein entitled “Nudge” – in the book they evaluate choices, biases and the limits of human reasoning from several perspectives. They tell stories about how they trick themselves to becoming victims of the very limitations of thought that they are describing. This is telling, because the very fact that these educated, articulate professionals can trick themselves (even though they know what is happening) demonstrates how tough it is to think clearly. We fall prey to systematic errors of judgment all the time – however, one of the ways of harnessing this issue is to help others make better decisions.
What is the cost of an item? The price tag is a matter of fact, but how often do people really think about the true cost of an item when weighing it against the benefits of ownership?
If we can concede that ‘hype’ is unpredictable, and that watch prices have no underlying rationale such as defined supply/demand constraints, then we must agree that buying watches for potential financial gain is simply speculation.